Chris Anderson replies to the claim that the long tail for music might be log normal (More long tail debate).
As Chris points out, the distribution can be badly skewed by the lack of good search or other filters. Unfortunately he also implies that this is a rare phenomena and that more accessible services like iTunes or Rhapsody don't suffer from the same distortions.
Anyone involved in running these businesses would laugh their heads off at this. The unfair advantages that accrue to the most powerful players in any industry - particularly in music - are incredible. In music, the four majors form a virtual cartel and have a corner on the market. They arm-twist the value chain every chance they get. For example, their contracts with the music services guarantee them a percentage of the promotional exposure from month to month which can cause artists to "pop" into the head of the curve.
At the head of the curve, distortions from fame, promotional arm-twisting, external events or many other factors are not really easy to model in practice - these are inherently non-mathematical effects - and this changes the shape of the curve from moment to moment. Perhaps further down the curve where each individual track is less significant, the power law is more applicable.
The bottom line is that you're still screwed if you're not in the head of the curve.
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